Calculation of Available Transmission Capability Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

With the further development of power markets, large amount of electric power wheeling and frequent transmission transaction is emerging, accurately determining Available Transmission Capability (ATC) and broadcasting the ATC information in time are very important to prevent and relieve transmission congestion effectively. In practical power markets, there are large amount of uncertainties involved in Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) and Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM) of ATC. Considering calculation accuracy and time, a novel approach is proposed to calculate ATC based on Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis considering large amount of uncertainties impacting the value of ATC. The steady state constraints and voltage stability and transient stability constraints are taken into account. The iterative solution based on PSASP by China EPRI is developed. IEEE 14-bus test system is used to verify the presented approach. The results show that the model and algorithm is correct and effective. The research achievements are undergoing to transfer to the application in certain provincial power system in China, and some new problems are suggested in the end of paper. Index Terms -Available Transmission Capability (ATC), Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM), Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM), Monte Carlo Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis